最有潛力的國家--馬來西亞

最有潛力的國家--馬來西亞

馬來西亞擁有三大族群，回教、華人、印度人

根據統計，回教大約十多億人口，華人人口也有十多億，加上印度人的十多億人口

這個國家關連了全球近半數的人口

全國第一的迷思 ( Myth No. 1 in the country )

全國第一的迷思 ( Myth No. 1 in the country )

今天下午去牽我那台壞在路邊的綠色摩托車回家
在回家的路上我看到了路邊施工的標語，上面寫著台北市地下水處理覆蓋率為全國第一

我第一個驚嘆號是

全國第一，那是世界第幾呢？

世界前十名，也是全國第一
世界最後一名，也是全國第一

如果你的全國第一，在世界排名是很後面的名次

那麼這個全國第一在外國人來看，是不是你們都很爛?

你們所謂的第一，卻是排在後面，那麼整個國家的形象不就壞了?

雖然我不知道是排名在第幾

但我認為，沒有在全世界Top 10 就別說全國第一

否則你們所號稱的全國第一，將會成為外國人取笑的對像


Google Translate

The first myth (Myth No. 1 in the country)

I this afternoon to lead the bad green motorcycle by the roadside home
On our way home I saw the construction of roadside banners, reading Taipei groundwater treatment coverage for the first

My first marveled
The first, it is the world's number?

The world's top 10, is the first
The last is first in the country

If your first in the country in the world rankings is behind the Placing

Well, this first in the country in foreigners, it is not you very bad?

Your so-called First, it is in the back row, then the whole country's image is not on the bad?

Although I do not know in the first few rankings

But I think, not in the world let alone the Top 10 on the first

Otherwise you have called the first in the country, will become like the foreigners laugh at the

本益比的迷思 ( The price/earnings ratio Myth )

本益比的迷思
在股票市場裡，有個名詞叫本益比本益比是用股價除以該公司的收益
例如該公司每股賺2元，股價為20元那麼該公司的本益比就是20 / 2 = 10 倍本益比
市場上許多投資人，證券分析師，投資基金公司常常會拿本益比來做為投資決策考慮的因素
有時，常常看到一隻股票已經跌了3成了
卻有分析師跳出來說該股的本益比偏低，叫大家可以放心的買
但股價卻沒有因為本益比偏低而漲，相反的卻一路往下跌
下面所要提的是本益比的觀念
如果說銀行的年利率是5% ，那麼把錢投入銀行可得
總資產的5% ，也就是說 100塊錢投入，將可收到5元
用本益比的概念來算，也就是100/5 = 20倍本益比
所以一般而言，股票的本益比都在10到15倍，是相對合理的
這個答案，大錯特錯!
為什呢?
因為一般市場上認同的股票本益比大概也是10到20倍
但大家忽略很重要的因素
==>本益比是可以操控，透過財務美化，或丑化，操控獲利，進而改變本益比進而使股價跟著本益比忽上忽下，爆漲爆跌
連續三個季節裡
可以把第一季的業績，做帳到第二季
第三季的帳，也提前做到第二季
換句話說第一季到第二季這段時間
業績將呈現大幅度的成長，股價將飛快的上漲
但，過了第二季後也就是第三季，因為業績已經提前做到到第二季去了
所以第三季的業績將大幅下降，
那麼將造成股價大幅的下降
這也是為什麼許多股票往往每年都會大漲1倍，或50%
短短三個月投資報酬高達1倍或50%
但卻漲完後，接著爆跌超過50%
因為業績有可能被操控了!
底下有個很有趣的例子，可以參考
假設，股價是隨本益比變動，而股票本益比，一般合理是10倍
有一隻股票 每股盈餘2元，股價20元
那麼，如果這隻股票的盈餘變5元，股價是多少呢?
5 x 10 =50元
他的獲利從2元，變成了5元， 在這個世界上增加了3元的產出
但股價，卻從20元，變成了50元
這中間，增加了30元，這30元的價值被創造出來了
假設這家公司發行了 1億股股份 ，他的年收益為2億元，
按10倍股票本益比計算，每股20元，也就是總市值20億元
而我持有該公司5成的股份，也就是值10億元
如果我無條件的送給這家公司3億元，
那麼該公司的收益將變成5億元，按本益比10倍計算
那麼該公司將值50億元，
依照這個模式，將創造出30億元的市值(50-20)
而我持有2分之1的股份，我將可分享30億元的一半，也就是15億元的收益
我只須賣出我手中持股的20%，那麼我將可以拿回我的成本3億元(15 x 20% =3)
若是我賣出多一點的股份，那麼我將賺的更多

Google Translate


The price/earnings ratio Myth
In the stock market, there is a term called price/earnings ratio (multiple) price/earnings ratio (multiple) use is divided by the company's stock gains
For example, a share the company earned two yuan, the price of 20 yuan So is the company's valuation 20 / 2 = 10 times the price/earnings ratio (multiple)
The market many investors, securities analysts, investment fund companies Often do with the investment decision-making price/earnings ratio (multiple) factors to consider
Sometimes, often see a stock has been down for three became
Analysts have jumped out, the stock would be valued at low, we can be assured that the call to buy
However, their stock prices are not as low and price/earnings ratio (multiple) rose, on the contrary it all the way down to
Below the point is the concept of price/earnings ratio (multiple)
If the annual interest rate banks are 5%, then the money can be invested in bank
Total assets of 5%, that is to say 100 money input will be received five yuan
The concept of using price/earnings ratio (multiple) operator, which is 100 / 5 = 20 times price/earnings ratio (multiple)
So generally speaking, the stock would be valued at in 10 to 15 times is relatively reasonable
This answer wrong!
Why?
Because the market generally agree about the stock valuation is 10 to 20 times
But we ignore very important factor
==> Valuation can be manipulated, through the Finance landscaping, or vilify, manipulate earnings and then changed price/earnings ratio (multiple) To gain access to shares with price/earnings ratio (multiple) jumped up and down and Shares Rose Shares down
Three consecutive season
Can the performance of the first quarter, so the second quarter to account
The accounts of the third quarter, also advanced to the second quarter
In other words the first quarter to the second quarter this time
The results will show substantial growth, stock prices will rise rapidly
But after a second consecutive quarters is the third quarter, because performance has been done to advance to the second quarter
Therefore, the third quarter's performance will drop substantially,
It will result in a substantial decline in share prices
This is the reason why many stocks often rose 1 times annually, or 50%
Three short months return on investment as high as 100% or 50%
But after the end up, and then Shares down more than 50%
Because the performance could be manipulated!
Underneath there is a very interesting example, can refer to
Assumptions, with price/earnings ratio (multiple) changes in the stock and stock valuation, is 10 times the normal reasonable
There is a stock earnings of 2 yuan, shares 20 yuan
Well, if this surplus stock changed five yuan, what is the price?
5 x 10 = 50 yuan
His earnings from two yuan, has become a five yuan, in the world increased by 3 yuan of output
However, their stock prices, yet 20 yuan, into a 50 yuan
This intermediate, an increase of 30 yuan, 30 yuan was created by the
Assume that the company issued 100 million shares, and his earnings for 200 million yuan,
According to 10 times the stock valuation basis, the per share 20 yuan, which is the total market value of 2 billion yuan
And I hold the company 5% of the shares, that is, value of 1 billion yuan
If I unconditional gave the company 300 million yuan,
Then the company's revenue will become a 500 million yuan, calculated according to price/earnings ratio (multiple) 10 times
Then the company would value 5.0 billion,
In accordance with this model, will create a 30-billion market value (50-20)
And I hold half the shares, I will be able to share 3 billion yuan half, which is 1.5 billion yuan revenue
I just sold my hands holdings of 20%, then I will be able to take back to my cost 300 million yuan (15 x 20% = 3)
If I sell a little bit more of the shares, then I will earn more

光電產業最佳代言人是誰? (Who photoelectric industry speak for the best?)

光電產業最佳代言人你們覺得是誰呢?

答案是SHE !

為什麼是SHE ， 相信反應靈快的人已經想到了

因為 SHE 有首歌 叫， Super Star

歌詞如下

SUPER STAR - S.H.E
曲︰JADE & GEOMAN FROM SWEETBOX
詞︰施人誠
編︰五月天
笑　就歌頌　一皺眉頭就心痛
我沒空理會我　只感受你的感受你要往哪走　
把我靈魂也帶走它為你著了魔　留著有什麼用
>你是電　你是光　你是唯一的神話
我只愛你 YOU ARE MY SUPER STAR
你主宰　我崇拜　沒有更好的辦法
只能愛你 YOU ARE MY SUPER STAR
手　不是手　是溫柔的宇宙我這顆小星球　
就在你手中轉動請　看見我　讓我有夢可以作
我為你發了瘋　你必須獎勵我
你是意義　是天是地是神的旨意
除了愛你　沒有真理
火　你是火　是我飛蛾的盡頭
沒想過要逃脫　為什麼我要逃脫
謝謝你給我　一段快樂的夢遊
如果我忘了我　請幫忙記得我

這首歌也可以用來描述光電產業的前景非常的光明
也是明日的Super Star 明星產業!

Google Translate

November 23, 2007 Friday
Who photoelectric industry speak for the best?
(Who photoelectric industry speak for the best?)
Optoelectronic Industry spokesmen you think is the best Who?
The answer is SHE!
SHE is why I believe the quick response of Hope had thought of people
Because of a song called SHE, Super Star
The lyrics are as follows
SUPER STAR - SHE Qu: JADE & GEOMAN FROM SWEETBOX One-word: Oxfam Found a series: Laughter on the glorification of a Brows up on heartache I did not empty I only care about the feelings you feel you have to go where I also take away the soul of it for you crazy Retention what is the use > You are, you are - you are the only mythology I only love you YOU ARE MY SUPER STAR No, I worship you dominate a better way Only love you YOU ARE MY SUPER STAR A gentle hand is not the hand I macro-cosmic planet Turn on your hands please see me so that I can make a dream I need to reward you crazy you I You significance is the day to the god's will In addition to love you no truth Fire is fire you to the end of my moths Thought to have escaped Why do I have to escape Thank you for giving me some happy Sleepwalking If I forgot to please help me remember that I
This song can be used to describe the photoelectric industry is very bright prospects Tomorrow is the Super Star star industry!

預期失靈 ! ( Expected failure! )

什麼是預期失靈呢?

預期、預測、期望是人人都會的

當一個大環境裡面，大家對某件的看法都是一致時

也就是預期未來會怎麼樣時

此時，就有的結果可能會出乎意料之外

打個比方，在股票市場大家都會有看法

當市場上大家的看法一致時，此時往往會發生狀況

如大家看好某隻股票會上多少錢，或指數會上多少時，通常市場是不會到達的!

因為在那個目標前，有心人已經會出光手上的股票，

最有名的就是禾申堂，當年大家都預測會上千元

但他最高點，你們知道是多少嗎?

答案是999元，差臨門一腳!

這是典型的例子

目標接近了，就開始先落跑~ (這也是為什麼分析師常說留點讓人賺，提前跑，用不著賣在最高點)

另外再提一個

2001年台灣立委選舉時，在台北市選區，有許多人看好的國民黨後選人

大家都看好他們會當選

出乎意料之外

很多人沒選上

當大家看好他們時，就把票投給別人了

這就是預期失靈的一個例子

因為大家看好，所以不去做

所造成的!

預期不一定準

尤其是當眾人看好時，就要保持小心了

股神小巴說過，當別悲觀時，就要看好

當別人樂觀時，就是要悲觀

這也是預期心裡在搞鬼

預期失靈，最大的危險不是在於預測不準

而是在大家、眾人、整個市場，看法都一致時

人們往往會在無形之中將信念建築在這個預期上

將這個預期變成一種真理，也就是一定會發生

因此造成了，人們信它，過度的信，變成一種信念及依賴，

而投入了大量的資源在上面，一但事實與預期落差很大

人們那一瞬間往往不知所措

因為造成了更嚴重的錯誤決策

一步錯，步步錯

這就是預期失靈!

下一篇，將介紹

貪婪與恐懼

Google translate

November 22, 2007 Thursday

Expected failure!

What is the expected failure?
Expected forecasts, the expectation is that everyone would
When a larger environment inside, everyone on a particular views are consistent,
What will happen next is expected when
At this time, there may be unexpected results
for example, in the stock market you will have views
When our views on the market in line, then the situation will happen often
If only everyone optimistic about the stock at a certain amount of money, or at the index number, the market is not usually arrived!
Because in that goal ago, well-intentioned people will have a hands-shares,
The most famous is the TaiwanStock Id 3206 , when everyone predicted at the'000
But his highest point, you know what?
The answer is 999 yuan, and poor go for the goal!
This is a typical example
Close to the goal, they started to run away~ (This is also why analysts often say that people leave earned, early run, there is no need to sell at the highest point)
One more addition
In 2001 Taiwan's Legislative Yuan elections, the Taipei City constituency, many of whom favored the KMT candidates
We are optimistic about them would be elected
Unexpected
Many people are not elected
When you optimistic about them, they vote for the people
This is an example of failures expected
Because everybody good, so I do not do it
Caused by!
Prospective not expected
Especially when everyone good, it is necessary to maintain a careful
PLB shares God said, when the other pessimistic, it is necessary to good
When others optimistic, is pessimistic
This is also expected hearts Haunted
Expected failures, and the greatest danger is not closed forecast
But everyone, everyone, the entire market, when views are consistent
People will always be belief in an invisible way in this building on the expected
This is expected to become a truth, that is, will happen
Therefore created, people believed it, over the letter, into a belief and reliance on,
While devoting substantial resources in the above, but a large gap between the expectation of the facts
People are often at a loss that moment
Because caused a more serious wrong decisions
Step wrong, wrong step by step
This is expected to failure!
Next, will be introduced
Greed and fear

出兵南極 ( Sending troops to the Antarctic )

據說南極地底下擁有非常豐富的石油
隨著溫世效應的發效，南極大陸上面冰將會漸漸溶解
人們將會開始注意到這個新大陸

也許二十年後南極的冰都化了，變成一塊可以住人的土地
加上南極擁有豐沛的資源
未來，南極將是兵家必爭之地

快來卡位

November 21, 2007 Wednesday

Sending troops to the Antarctic

It is said that the ground below the Antarctic have very rich in oil With WEN Shi effect of the effect of the above Antarctica ice will gradually dissolved People will start to take note of this New World
Perhaps after 20 years of Antarctic ice all, a piece of land can be occupied The Antarctic has rich resources The future will be the Antarctic always been the land fought
Come card -

狂想、妄想 ( Whims, paranoia )

終於弄好了！

October 27, 2007 Saturday

Whims, paranoia

Finally can contribute to the promotion!