預期失靈 ! ( Expected failure! )

什麼是預期失靈呢?

預期、預測、期望是人人都會的

當一個大環境裡面，大家對某件的看法都是一致時

也就是預期未來會怎麼樣時

此時，就有的結果可能會出乎意料之外

打個比方，在股票市場大家都會有看法

當市場上大家的看法一致時，此時往往會發生狀況

如大家看好某隻股票會上多少錢，或指數會上多少時，通常市場是不會到達的!

因為在那個目標前，有心人已經會出光手上的股票，

最有名的就是禾申堂，當年大家都預測會上千元

但他最高點，你們知道是多少嗎?

答案是999元，差臨門一腳!

這是典型的例子

目標接近了，就開始先落跑~ (這也是為什麼分析師常說留點讓人賺，提前跑，用不著賣在最高點)

另外再提一個

2001年台灣立委選舉時，在台北市選區，有許多人看好的國民黨後選人

大家都看好他們會當選

出乎意料之外

很多人沒選上

當大家看好他們時，就把票投給別人了

這就是預期失靈的一個例子

因為大家看好，所以不去做

所造成的!

預期不一定準

尤其是當眾人看好時，就要保持小心了

股神小巴說過，當別悲觀時，就要看好

當別人樂觀時，就是要悲觀

這也是預期心裡在搞鬼

預期失靈，最大的危險不是在於預測不準

而是在大家、眾人、整個市場，看法都一致時

人們往往會在無形之中將信念建築在這個預期上

將這個預期變成一種真理，也就是一定會發生

因此造成了，人們信它，過度的信，變成一種信念及依賴，

而投入了大量的資源在上面，一但事實與預期落差很大

人們那一瞬間往往不知所措

因為造成了更嚴重的錯誤決策

一步錯，步步錯

這就是預期失靈!

下一篇，將介紹

貪婪與恐懼

Google translate

November 22, 2007 Thursday

Expected failure!

What is the expected failure?
Expected forecasts, the expectation is that everyone would
When a larger environment inside, everyone on a particular views are consistent,
What will happen next is expected when
At this time, there may be unexpected results
for example, in the stock market you will have views
When our views on the market in line, then the situation will happen often
If only everyone optimistic about the stock at a certain amount of money, or at the index number, the market is not usually arrived!
Because in that goal ago, well-intentioned people will have a hands-shares,
The most famous is the TaiwanStock Id 3206 , when everyone predicted at the'000
But his highest point, you know what?
The answer is 999 yuan, and poor go for the goal!
This is a typical example
Close to the goal, they started to run away~ (This is also why analysts often say that people leave earned, early run, there is no need to sell at the highest point)
One more addition
In 2001 Taiwan's Legislative Yuan elections, the Taipei City constituency, many of whom favored the KMT candidates
We are optimistic about them would be elected
Unexpected
Many people are not elected
When you optimistic about them, they vote for the people
This is an example of failures expected
Because everybody good, so I do not do it
Caused by!
Prospective not expected
Especially when everyone good, it is necessary to maintain a careful
PLB shares God said, when the other pessimistic, it is necessary to good
When others optimistic, is pessimistic
This is also expected hearts Haunted
Expected failures, and the greatest danger is not closed forecast
But everyone, everyone, the entire market, when views are consistent
People will always be belief in an invisible way in this building on the expected
This is expected to become a truth, that is, will happen
Therefore created, people believed it, over the letter, into a belief and reliance on,
While devoting substantial resources in the above, but a large gap between the expectation of the facts
People are often at a loss that moment
Because caused a more serious wrong decisions
Step wrong, wrong step by step
This is expected to failure!
Next, will be introduced
Greed and fear