本益比的迷思 ( The price/earnings ratio Myth )

本益比的迷思
在股票市場裡，有個名詞叫本益比本益比是用股價除以該公司的收益
例如該公司每股賺2元，股價為20元那麼該公司的本益比就是20 / 2 = 10 倍本益比
市場上許多投資人，證券分析師，投資基金公司常常會拿本益比來做為投資決策考慮的因素
有時，常常看到一隻股票已經跌了3成了
卻有分析師跳出來說該股的本益比偏低，叫大家可以放心的買
但股價卻沒有因為本益比偏低而漲，相反的卻一路往下跌
下面所要提的是本益比的觀念
如果說銀行的年利率是5% ，那麼把錢投入銀行可得
總資產的5% ，也就是說 100塊錢投入，將可收到5元
用本益比的概念來算，也就是100/5 = 20倍本益比
所以一般而言，股票的本益比都在10到15倍，是相對合理的
這個答案，大錯特錯!
為什呢?
因為一般市場上認同的股票本益比大概也是10到20倍
但大家忽略很重要的因素
==>本益比是可以操控，透過財務美化，或丑化，操控獲利，進而改變本益比進而使股價跟著本益比忽上忽下，爆漲爆跌
連續三個季節裡
可以把第一季的業績，做帳到第二季
第三季的帳，也提前做到第二季
換句話說第一季到第二季這段時間
業績將呈現大幅度的成長，股價將飛快的上漲
但，過了第二季後也就是第三季，因為業績已經提前做到到第二季去了
所以第三季的業績將大幅下降，
那麼將造成股價大幅的下降
這也是為什麼許多股票往往每年都會大漲1倍，或50%
短短三個月投資報酬高達1倍或50%
但卻漲完後，接著爆跌超過50%
因為業績有可能被操控了!
底下有個很有趣的例子，可以參考
假設，股價是隨本益比變動，而股票本益比，一般合理是10倍
有一隻股票 每股盈餘2元，股價20元
那麼，如果這隻股票的盈餘變5元，股價是多少呢?
5 x 10 =50元
他的獲利從2元，變成了5元， 在這個世界上增加了3元的產出
但股價，卻從20元，變成了50元
這中間，增加了30元，這30元的價值被創造出來了
假設這家公司發行了 1億股股份 ，他的年收益為2億元，
按10倍股票本益比計算，每股20元，也就是總市值20億元
而我持有該公司5成的股份，也就是值10億元
如果我無條件的送給這家公司3億元，
那麼該公司的收益將變成5億元，按本益比10倍計算
那麼該公司將值50億元，
依照這個模式，將創造出30億元的市值(50-20)
而我持有2分之1的股份，我將可分享30億元的一半，也就是15億元的收益
我只須賣出我手中持股的20%，那麼我將可以拿回我的成本3億元(15 x 20% =3)
若是我賣出多一點的股份，那麼我將賺的更多

Google Translate


The price/earnings ratio Myth
In the stock market, there is a term called price/earnings ratio (multiple) price/earnings ratio (multiple) use is divided by the company's stock gains
For example, a share the company earned two yuan, the price of 20 yuan So is the company's valuation 20 / 2 = 10 times the price/earnings ratio (multiple)
The market many investors, securities analysts, investment fund companies Often do with the investment decision-making price/earnings ratio (multiple) factors to consider
Sometimes, often see a stock has been down for three became
Analysts have jumped out, the stock would be valued at low, we can be assured that the call to buy
However, their stock prices are not as low and price/earnings ratio (multiple) rose, on the contrary it all the way down to
Below the point is the concept of price/earnings ratio (multiple)
If the annual interest rate banks are 5%, then the money can be invested in bank
Total assets of 5%, that is to say 100 money input will be received five yuan
The concept of using price/earnings ratio (multiple) operator, which is 100 / 5 = 20 times price/earnings ratio (multiple)
So generally speaking, the stock would be valued at in 10 to 15 times is relatively reasonable
This answer wrong!
Why?
Because the market generally agree about the stock valuation is 10 to 20 times
But we ignore very important factor
==> Valuation can be manipulated, through the Finance landscaping, or vilify, manipulate earnings and then changed price/earnings ratio (multiple) To gain access to shares with price/earnings ratio (multiple) jumped up and down and Shares Rose Shares down
Three consecutive season
Can the performance of the first quarter, so the second quarter to account
The accounts of the third quarter, also advanced to the second quarter
In other words the first quarter to the second quarter this time
The results will show substantial growth, stock prices will rise rapidly
But after a second consecutive quarters is the third quarter, because performance has been done to advance to the second quarter
Therefore, the third quarter's performance will drop substantially,
It will result in a substantial decline in share prices
This is the reason why many stocks often rose 1 times annually, or 50%
Three short months return on investment as high as 100% or 50%
But after the end up, and then Shares down more than 50%
Because the performance could be manipulated!
Underneath there is a very interesting example, can refer to
Assumptions, with price/earnings ratio (multiple) changes in the stock and stock valuation, is 10 times the normal reasonable
There is a stock earnings of 2 yuan, shares 20 yuan
Well, if this surplus stock changed five yuan, what is the price?
5 x 10 = 50 yuan
His earnings from two yuan, has become a five yuan, in the world increased by 3 yuan of output
However, their stock prices, yet 20 yuan, into a 50 yuan
This intermediate, an increase of 30 yuan, 30 yuan was created by the
Assume that the company issued 100 million shares, and his earnings for 200 million yuan,
According to 10 times the stock valuation basis, the per share 20 yuan, which is the total market value of 2 billion yuan
And I hold the company 5% of the shares, that is, value of 1 billion yuan
If I unconditional gave the company 300 million yuan,
Then the company's revenue will become a 500 million yuan, calculated according to price/earnings ratio (multiple) 10 times
Then the company would value 5.0 billion,
In accordance with this model, will create a 30-billion market value (50-20)
And I hold half the shares, I will be able to share 3 billion yuan half, which is 1.5 billion yuan revenue
I just sold my hands holdings of 20%, then I will be able to take back to my cost 300 million yuan (15 x 20% = 3)
If I sell a little bit more of the shares, then I will earn more